Competitive Intelligence initiatives

L’Indonésie à la croisée des chemin. Indonesia at the crossroads - Geopolitics Geopolitique

novembre 22nd, 2019 Posted in Asia, France

In a paper published by the International Review of Economic Intelligence, Henri Dou and Pierre Fournie presented an article upon the future of Indonesia at the crossroad of various geopolitics events. The paper is presented in French and is available HERE.  To facilitate the comprehension of the paper, the abstract in English is given underneath.

At a time, in Europe, people’eyes are directed towards Maghreb, Mashreq, the Near or Middle East, two superpowers, the United States of America and China, have launched throughout Asia a go game play  . Free trade agreements are one of the options available to convince the different countries of the area to join their spheres of influence. Whether they are commercial, economic or of more strategic scope, there are plenty issues of major importance and the weight of the candidate countries is only very relative in the establishment of the rules. What consequences, becoming a member of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) - under American influence - or of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) - dominated by Chinese initiatives - can have on a country’s agriculture, industries, digital economy and intellectual property? What will be the impact of entering such partnerships into domestic or foreign policies? Our research will take Indonesia as a standard, since it is considered in Southeast Asia as “the elephant in the room”, and can rightly be approached insistently by China and the USA. If the observations drawn from this analysis are not fully transposable to the other countries of the zone, they highlight many problems and force vectors that countries of smaller size will certainly face or suffer.

On January 23rd, 2017, the newly elected President Donald Trump was ending the ratification process of TPP by United States destroying seven years of efforts deployed by the Obama’s administration. The Presidential Memorandum directed a permanent withdraw of all related on-going negotiations. Is it a way to respect electoral promises? To impress people using a symbolic act with little risk (the agreement has not yet been validated by the US Congress), to please the “American Worker” now unavoidable in the presidential writings? Or is it a way to enter differently into negotiations? To use the high profile and weight of United States in bilateral negotiations, taking the risk to destabilize pro-TPP governments, to forget about the equilibrium contained in TPP, to push South Asian countries on Chinese hands. Unless, President Trump intends to use the well known commercial technique consisting of going out the game until all member countries call you back. Thus, he might be on a stronger position to renegotiate at the full benefit of USA. The Obama’s administration had specialists studies made to quantity the expected impacts of TPP on the US economy and the loss that any delay in the implementation may generate. Would not it be a risk for the Trump administration not to take into consideration those elements ?

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